– It seems that the first two months of the coming year have seriously shaken up the world. Do you think it’s worth adjusting forecasts for 2022?
– In general, the year 2022 did not start as critically as many people think. In fact, we see quite a logical development of the economic and political cycle. Without delving into philosophy and political economy, I want to remind you that all the key points that are now recognized as the most problematic began to arise not on January 1 of the new year. The epidemiological crisis has not gone anywhere and omicron is nothing more than the result of the natural evolution of COVID-19. The difficulties in Russian-Ukrainian relations also did not begin yesterday. Here, of course, you can talk for a long time about global interests and shadow players, but at our level of understanding and possession of information, this will not lead to any more or less objective conclusions. Our task is to correctly assess the situation and work from the situation, which is quite possible. For those who doubt their capabilities, the specialized department of our foundation regularly issues analytical reports. Positive feedback from Trust in BTC customers suggests that this practice is in demand and gives tangible results.
– Was such a noticeable drop in the bitcoin exchange rate after the updated record expected?
– This question is probably one of the most urgent now in the crypto community. Bitcoin, indeed, has added a lot of gray hair to traders who are prone to excessively impulsive actions. We initially warn the clients of the TiB fund against emotional trading and always offer to rise a little above the situation – this way it is much easier to understand the main reasons and see potential development trajectories. First of all, it should be understood that bitcoin, despite all the decentralization and alternative, is part of the global financial system, so any significant events will affect its course. Due to the very specifics of the cryptocurrency as a phenomenon, in some cases the reaction of BTC is different from traditional assets, but this is a separate issue. If you look at how the year 2021 ended, then one of the main economic indicators was the unprecedented inflation rate in the United States over the past few decades – it reached 6.2%. Of course, the Fed can respond to this by raising rates, which leads to a decrease in the profitability of securities, currencies and risky assets in principle. Investors react to this by exiting such assets, which immediately affects their exchange rate, which we observed in the case of bitcoin, ether and other coins.
– So investing bitcoin will have to wait?
– No, of course not. It is worth distinguishing situationality and long-term perspective. The global economy is recovering from the impact of the pandemic, which means that central banks will sooner or later think about lowering the rate. There is another interesting angle to this question: suppose bitcoin does move down in the short term. The moment will come quite quickly when traders will become sharply more active, seeking to buy at an attractive price, which will become a powerful impulse for the confident growth of the BTC exchange rate. Cryptocurrencies now have a very solid credit of trust, there are practically no more those who still perceive bitcoin as an incomprehensible soap bubble in the old-fashioned way. One of the consequences of this is the increased interest and, accordingly, the professionalism of market participants, which leads to a decrease in volatility and an increase in the time of cardinal movements of the exchange rate.
– What about the current political situation?
– The whole world is following the geopolitical crises that are unfolding literally before our eyes. However, cryptocurrencies in general will be much more significantly influenced not by another armed conflict, but by changes in legislative regulation, especially in the leading countries. There is no unity on this issue yet, but there are undoubtedly serious positive developments.
– It turns out that the situation in the crypto market is quite regular?
– Yes, despite the general nervousness in the world, nothing urgent is happening in the cryptocurrency market. This is what we are trying to convey to the clients of the Trust in BTC project. As I said at the beginning of the conversation, our task now is not to talk at the kitchen level about the world order, but to take competent actions within the framework of the current situation.