The ruble predictably reacted to the beginning of the systemic international crisis with a steep peak, updating historical lows. The panic, however, did not last long, almost a day later the exchange rate of the Russian currency noticeably recovered from the first shocks, but there is no talk of returning to the original values yet. The future of the ruble is very vague, but the investment specialists of the Trust in BTC project are considering several of the most likely scenarios for the development of events.
« The main thing that worries people today is the immediate prospects of the Russian currency, many are thinking about how to adjust the investment portfolio according to the changed situation. At least this is evidenced by the reviews of Trust in BTC customers, our participants, » says Dmitry Krasovsky, a specialist in the fundamental analysis department of Trust in BTC. According to him, the analytical department of the fund is currently intensively working on a comprehensive assessment of the situation, some general conclusions can be drawn already now.
The weakening of the ruble has a number of very negative consequences for the Russian economy. We should expect an increase in inflation and a drop in the purchasing power of the population, so we need to think about saving the available funds right now. It is unlikely that the ruble exchange rate will be allowed to float freely. We can already see that the Central Bank’s interventions have provided significant support. It is unlikely that the ruble will get back to historical lows in the near future. The central bank will try to influence the exchange rate more actively, given that very limited demand for Russian assets is expected. Further tightening of sanctions may well lead to a long-term gradual weakening of the ruble due to the overall impact on the Russian economy.
– There is another important factor, – adds the expert Trust in BTC, – the prices of exported resources. Oil prices are steadily moving up, at the moment this applies only to the Brent brand, but I think this trend will be relevant for the Russian Urals oil. The price of gas is also breaking records, which undoubtedly plays in favor of stabilizing the ruble.
So far, the main unknown factor remains the geopolitical situation. Much will depend on the time that will pass before the discharge begins. Apparently, the duration of the sanctions imposed on Russia and, accordingly, to a large extent, the behavior of the ruble depends on this. There are no objective prerequisites for delaying the critical situation yet – in the period of globalization, it is unrealistic to completely turn off a country of the scale of Russia from the world market without tangible consequences for everyone else. From here, we can make a cautious forecast that the dollar in the near future will be within the limits of the 80 – 90 rubles corridor.
As for the question « whether to buy dollars », which is beloved by many, the experts of Trust in BTC are unanimous:
– During periods of such turbulence, such operations look high-risk. The most dangerous thing now is to act on emotions. Either professionals or large players with insider information earn money on such jumps of the course. Ordinary people should not be deluded by the prospect of easy profit. The main goal is only to save. But the bank spread at fixed exchange rates is so huge that it will not work to speculate on it. A much more urgent task now seems to be the search for stable protective assets, or assets with stable positive dynamics. In the short term, the priority is to preserve the available funds, for a long-term, you can think about investing in more volatile assets.
In both cases, it is reasonable to take a closer look at the cryptocurrency market. As a « safe harbor », you can consider stablecoins that are closely related to both fiat and crypto, but are practically devoid of the disadvantages characteristic of both markets. For long-term investment, the main cryptocurrencies are suitable, which, due to the current correction, can be purchased at a very attractive rate. A small part of the portfolio can be invested in promising young projects.
If you are not an experienced market participant and do not know how to start investing in cryptocurrencies, then in the Trust in BTC project you can simply purchase GLT, the internal token of the project, which is already balanced by both stable assets and more volatile assets with growth potential. You can register on the project’s website trust-in-btc.com and get advice from an experienced participant-mentor online.
*Attention! The author’s point of view is given. This text is not an instruction for action and does not carry direct or indirect recommendations for certain actions for the purchase/sale of financial assets.